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Another Week, Another Pulse!

While Punjab gets ready for Basant celebrations, the week brought plenty of economic and market developments. All eyes are on the State Bank of Pakistan, which is expected to announce its monetary policy today. Most analysts are betting on a rate cut, which could ease borrowing costs and give a small boost to markets.

Foreign investors are quietly back in the game. Over $114 million flowed into treasury bills in just the first two weeks of January. Not huge, but enough to get attention. Meanwhile, Pakistan is planning its return to international bond markets after nearly four years, exploring US dollar bonds, euro bonds, sukuk, and its first Panda bond. If it works, this could open the door for fresh foreign capital.

But not everything is smooth. Pakistan’s current account slipped into deficit in December, posting a $244 million shortfall after November’s surplus. The first half of FY26 now shows a $1.17 billion deficit, a sharp contrast to last year. Foreign direct investment fell by 43%, a reminder that global money is still cautious about high costs and uncertainty at home.

Inflation pressures continue to bite. Cement prices jumped Rs. 30–50 per bag in the north, and the poultry sector warned that the tax on day-old chicks could push chicken prices higher in weeks, squeezing household budgets. Small moves at the start of the supply chain are now showing up in the stores.

On the policy front, there are a few positives. The SECP eased rules to make it simpler for listed companies to raise capital. The Petroleum Division rolled out a track-and-trace system to curb fuel smuggling. Pakistan is even experimenting with tokenizing government debt, a step toward modern digital finance. Meanwhile, the rupee gained slight competitiveness, offering some relief to exporters.

Globally, the IMF upgraded its growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, pointing to tech and AI as key drivers. But a warning came too: trade tensions or overhyped AI gains could shift the story quickly.

So what’s next? The monetary policy announcement is the big event. A rate cut could lift sentiment. But the real question is whether investment, cost relief, and reform momentum will follow — or if excitement fades once the headlines settle.

Here’s your five-minute recap of everything you need to know. 

🎧 Tune in to this week’s Pulse:

Youtube - https://tinyurl.com/52sknfa4

Pakistan’s stock market maintained strong momentum, with the KSE-100 Index climbing to a record 189,167, adding over 4,000 points in the week. Investor optimism was fueled by improving economic conditions and expectations of supportive government policies.

The rally was further reinforced by softer geopolitical tensions, injections of liquidity into the financial system, and hopes of interest rate cuts, as treasury bill yields returned to single-digit levels for the first time in nearly four years.

Pak-Qatar General Takaful IPO Book-Building Ends with Historic 21x Oversubscription

Pak-Qatar General Takaful’s first-ever IPO on the PSX closed with a historic 21 times oversubscription, with the strike price set at Rs. 14 per share. Total demand reached Rs. 4.74 billion, reflecting strong investor interest. Proceeds will be used to expand branches, upgrade technology, enhance customer services, and invest in marketing and staff development, marking a major step for growth in Pakistan’s takaful sector.

Barkat Frisian Agro Invests in JV Vehicle to Develop 2nd Poultry Farm

Barkat Frisian Agro has taken a key step in its poultry expansion plan by investing Rs. 26,000 for a 26% stake in Agrolayer Protein Farms (Pvt) Ltd, which will serve as the joint venture for its second poultry farm. The move is part of the company’s backward integration strategy in the poultry supply chain. Any future investments in the venture will require shareholder approval and regulatory compliance.

Fitch Affirms Pakistan’s Debt Rating at ‘B-’

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Pakistan’s long-term debt rating at ‘B-’ and assigned a Recovery Rating of RR4, indicating an average expectation of recovery in case of default. The ratings reflect Fitch’s new Sovereign Rating Criteria and take into account Pakistan’s high government debt and interest obligations. The decision signals stability in the country’s debt outlook while highlighting the challenges in improving recovery prospects.

Pakistan Seeks IMF Support for Looser Budget, Eyes Growth Strategy

Pakistan is seeking backing from the IMF for a more flexible budget and fiscal framework in the next financial year. A high-level committee, led by Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, is preparing a long-term plan to exit the IMF programme by 2027–28, focusing on boosting growth and investment. However, recent data shows FDI has dropped 43% and the current account swung to a $1.2 billion deficit, raising concerns that the investment-to-GDP ratio could hit a historic low by year-end.

Pakistan, IsDB Sign $603 Million in Loans for Infrastructure and Social Projects

Pakistan and the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) have signed three loan agreements worth $603 million to fund major infrastructure, poverty reduction, and education initiatives. The M-6 Sukkur–Hyderabad Motorway will receive $475 million to enhance connectivity and trade, while the Poverty Graduation Project will support ultra-poor and flood-affected families, with IsDB contributing $118.4 million toward sustainable livelihoods. The agreements were finalized in Islamabad following high-level talks between government and IsDB officials.

Pakistan to Bring Crypto into Formal Economy Under New Virtual Assets Framework

Pakistan is set to integrate cryptocurrency into the formal economy through the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA), as part of the government’s “Digital Nation Pakistan 2025” vision. Advisor to the Finance Minister Khurram Schehzad said tax incentives for crypto holders are under consideration, while the government aims to make all G2G transactions digital and open 120 million bank accounts. The plan also includes support for SMEs, youth, and skilled workers, with loans, skill bonds, and industrial incentives to drive digital and financial inclusion across the country.

SECP Allows Asset Managers to Open Sehl Investment Accounts Directly

The SECP has allowed Asset Management Companies to open Sehl Sarmayakari Accounts directly for residents through their digital platforms or physical forms, instead of relying on banks or branchless agents. These low-risk accounts make investing in mutual funds and collective investment schemes easier for low-income individuals, with simplified KYC and onboarding. Investors can later upgrade to higher-limit accounts, supporting financial inclusion and broader access to capital markets.

Gap at the Top: Is the market becoming too one-sided? 🏦

The December 2025 rankings just came out, and the “Big Three” are in a league of their own. Al Meezan Investment Management Limited , NBP Fund Management Limited, and MCB Funds now control roughly 35% of all the money in the industry.

To put that in perspective: out of the 21 AMCs on this list, just these three manage over PKR 1.4 trillion. While the entire industry is growing toward the PKR 4 trillion mark, the gap between these leaders and the rest is only getting wider.

But does being the biggest always mean being the best? 📊

The giants offer safety and trust, but sometimes smaller, mid-sized companies can move faster and capture better opportunities in specific areas.

What’s your strategy?

Are you sticking with the big names for peace of mind, or looking for higher growth with the other players? 👇