Trading 📉, Policy 🏛️, Insights 🔍

Another Week, Another Pulse!

This week carried a mix of celebration, tragedy, and important economic updates that kept both the country and markets on edge. While many across Punjab gathered to celebrate Basant, the nation was shaken by a tragic explosion during Friday prayers at a Shia mosque in Islamabad’s Tarlai Kalan. At the same time, the week opened with fresh inflation data showing consumer prices rising 5.8% year-on-year in January, setting the tone for discussions around interest rates and economic direction. In the first treasury bill auction after the State Bank maintained its policy rate at 10.50%, yields moved higher, signaling changing expectations in the fixed-income market.

On the economic front, cement sector numbers stood out! Local sales grew modestly while exports surged sharply, pushing total dispatches significantly higher. Pakistan’s trade deficit widened by over 28% during the first seven months of the fiscal year, highlighting ongoing external pressures, while urea sales slowed due to earlier advance buying and seasonal demand changes. Meanwhile, the government moved forward on several strategic initiatives, including steps toward operationalizing the National Artificial Intelligence Policy through the formation of the country’s first AI Council and plans to regulate and formalize Pakistan’s $450 billion precious stones market. Progress was also reported on the IMF front, with Pakistan meeting three out of five major fiscal conditions tied to the next $1 billion tranche, although challenges remain around broadening the tax base. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and his team also met with Citibank to explore sovereign financing solutions and potential cooperation.

Globally, the IMF projected that inflation is expected to ease further in coming years, and JPMorgan began finalising plans for a new frontier market local currency bond index expected to include Pakistan among the largest weightings. Meanwhile, corporate developments also made headlines, with Sazgar Engineering Works Limited growing from a $10.8 million company in February 2023 to nearly $500 million by February 2026 — a remarkable 46x expansion in just three years.

And amid all this, one question many people were asking, is the Rs. 5,000 note really being discontinued? The State Bank of Pakistan clarified this week that no such proposal is currently under consideration, putting recent speculation to rest.

Here’s your five-minute recap of last week’s key developments, helping you stay informed and plan ahead.

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The Pakistan stock market experienced a week of ups and downs as the KSE-100 index struggled to find direction amid mixed economic cues, global uncertainties, and domestic security concerns. After staying in positive territory for most of the week, the index gave back its gains toward Friday, closing almost unchanged at 184,130, down just 45 points (-0.02%) compared to the previous week.

Ghani Dairies IPO Oversubscribed 3.10x

Ghani Dairies’ IPO drew strong interest, being oversubscribed 3.1 times, as both institutional and high-net-worth investors lined up to buy shares. The strike price was set at Rs. 33 per share, above the floor price of Rs. 24, and mutual funds and wealthy individuals were the biggest buyers. In total, 771 investors participated, with 223 declared successful. This strong demand shows confidence in the company and the dairy sector, and with underwriting support from JS Global Capital and Bashir Kasim Textile, the IPO is expected to boost Ghani Dairies’ capital for expansion and operations.

Highnoon Laboratories Considers Acquisition to Boost Market Presence

Highnoon Laboratories has announced that its board has approved, in principle, a potential acquisition aimed at strengthening its market position. The move is intended to expand the company’s business footprint, enhance its product portfolio, and improve distribution and operational efficiency. The deal is still in the evaluation stage and will require due diligence, negotiations, regulatory approvals, and other customary procedures before it can proceed. The company will share further updates as the process unfolds.

US Earmarks $1.3 Billion for Reko Diq Mining Project
The United States has pledged $1.3 billion to support the Reko Diq copper and gold mining project in Balochistan, part of Pakistan’s ongoing partnership with a Canadian firm. The project, which requires a total investment of $3.2 billion, has already begun construction, with commercial production expected by 2028. Pakistan’s mineral sector, though currently a small part of the economy, has huge potential with over 92 known minerals and 5,000 operational mines. The US funding is part of its Project Vault, aimed at strengthening critical mineral production and supply chains, highlighting growing international interest in Pakistan’s mineral resources and the sector’s prospects for expansion.

Saudi and UAE Support: Short-Term Relief for Pakistan’s FX Reserves

Pakistan is working to secure key extensions on its foreign financing to ease pressure on reserves. The government has formally requested Saudi Arabia to extend its $1.2 billion oil facility for another two years, which currently provides $100 million per month in deferred oil payments and is set to expire next month. Meanwhile, the UAE has rolled over $2 billion in loans for just one month at a 6.5% interest rate, giving Islamabad more time to negotiate a longer, two-year extension and a lower rate. These measures are critical as Pakistan races to maintain its roughly $16 billion in foreign exchange reserves, support ongoing IMF commitments, and ensure smooth energy imports and debt obligations over the coming months.

Government’s Cloud First Policy Draws Interest from Six Providers

The Ministry of IT and Telecom (MoITT) has received applications from six cloud service providers seeking accreditation under the government’s Cloud First Policy, signaling growing interest in public sector cloud solutions. The ministry is also exploring the use of Pakistan’s locally hosted AI Cloud and Data Centre, launched in November with Nvidia, which offers sovereign AI, GPU-as-a-Service, and AI Cloud capabilities while ensuring data security and regulatory compliance. Potential uses include e-governance, digital public services, cybersecurity, secure data hosting, and AI research, though formal onboarding and pilot projects are still under consideration.

Wafi Energy Plans $100 Million Investment in Pakistan

Saudi-based Wafi Energy Pakistan Ltd plans to invest up to $100 million over the next 2–3 years to expand its retail network, storage capacity, and technology-driven operations. The announcement came during a high-level meeting with Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, where the company shared its growth plans and discussed opportunities in the oil marketing and energy sector. The finance minister highlighted that maintaining macroeconomic stability and stronger foreign exchange buffers will help build investor confidence and support smoother business operations, including cross-border payments and dividend repatriation.

Finding the Right Pick! 🔎

It’s the #1 question we get: "How do I actually choose a fund?" This step-by-step walkthrough by Anam Saeed shows you how to use the Behtari App to its full potential. While the Pakistani market has traditionally lacked easy-to-use analytical tools, this guide makes it easy to compare and pick the right funds in just a few minutes.

Stop scrolling through messy PDFs and start using data:

➡️ Compare multiple funds side-by-side.

➡️ Filter by risk, category, and performance.

➡️ Find your "perfect fit" without the headache.

Watch the full guide here:

https://lnkd.in/dz9bZa4u

_{Today’s Pulse by Capital Stake is brought to you by Hubab Irfan}